A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
