Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
